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Housing Forecast: 6 Predictions for 2026
The following is a summary of Windermere Principal Economist Jeff Tucker’s six predictions for the U.S. housing market and economy in 2026. He goes into more detail about his predictions in the video below.
1. Existing Home Sales Will Pick Up (Barely)
Home sales have hovered near generational lows for three years. While a sharp rebound is unlikely, conditions point to a modest uptick in 2026. Inventory levels are higher than they’ve been since 2019, and mortgage rates are lower than they’ve been since 2022. Together, those factors should lift existing home sales—but not by much.
2. Home Prices Will Be Roughly Flat
Home prices are likely to remain flat in 2026, largely due to higher inventory putting downward pressure on values. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed small declines last summer, though that trend faded by fall. Sellers have been highly responsive to market shifts, often de-listing when offers fall short or holding off on listing altogether. That restraint has kept prices from falling further despite growing supply
3. Inventory Will Climb to Pre-Pandemic Levels
The number of homes for sale will likely return to pre-pandemic levels in 2026, possibly as early as spring. Inventory rose sharply in 2025, and a “shadow supply” of homes—those whose owners are waiting for better conditions—remains in the wings. Many “discretionary sellers” will continue testing the market, holding out for the right price. That behavior should extend average time on market and boost total listings, giving buyers more options and negotiating power.
4. The Homeownership Rate Will Decline
At current prices and interest rates, homeownership remains out of reach for many middle-class Americans who would have bought in different conditions. Slower rent growth has also reduced urgency among would-be buyers, encouraging them to stay put. More renters are opting for single-family homes to enjoy the space and lifestyle of ownership without a mortgage, a shift that will help push the overall homeownership rate slightly lower.
5. Mortgage Rates Will Decline Slightly
Mortgage rates should remain below 6.25% for most of 2026 and could briefly dip under 6%. The Fed’s rate cuts and slower growth have brought 10-year Treasury yields near 4%, while the spread between Treasuries and mortgage rates has narrowed toward its normal range of 2% or less. That trend is expected to continue as refinance risk on mortgage-backed securities gradually fades, but much of the improvement is already reflected in current rates, so significant declines are unlikely.
6. We Will Avoid a Recession in 2026
The U.S. economy weathered several shocks in 2025 but avoided a downturn. Payroll gains have slowed, though more due to shrinking labor supply than weak demand, and unemployment claims have remained stable. After early trade policy turbulence, corporate earnings rebounded strongly, and tariff concerns have faded as court challenges and new trade deals rolled back some of the costliest restrictions.
This article originally appeared on the Windermere blog December 2, 2025.
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
© Copyright 2025, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island.
Q4 2022 Western Washington Economic & Real Estate Update
The following analysis of select counties of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. I hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.
Regional Economic Overview
Although the job market in Western Washington continues to grow, the pace has started to slow. The region added over 91,000 new jobs during the past year, but the 12-month growth rate is now below 100,000, a level we have not seen since the start of the post-COVID job recovery. That said, all but three counties have recovered completely from their pandemic job losses and total regional employment is up more than 52,000 jobs. The regional unemployment rate in November was 3.8%, which was marginally above the 3.7% level of a year ago. Many business owners across the country are pondering whether we are likely to enter a recession this year. As a result, it’s very possible that they will start to slow their expansion in anticipation of an economic contraction.
Western Washington Home Sales
❱ In the final quarter of 2022, 12,711 homes sold, representing a drop of 42% from the same period in 2021. Sales were 34.7% lower than in the third quarter of 2022.
❱ Listing activity rose in every market year over year but fell more than 26% compared to the third quarter, which is expected given the time of year.
❱ Home sales fell across the board relative to the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022.
❱ Pending sales (demand) outpaced listings (supply) by a factor of 1:2. This was down from 1:6 in the third quarter. That ratio has been trending lower for the past year, which suggests that buyers are being more cautious and may be waiting for mortgage rates to drop.
Western Washington Home Prices
❱ Sale prices fell an average of 2% compared to the same period the year prior and were 6.1% lower than in the third quarter of 2022. The average sale price was $702,653.
❱ The median listing price in the fourth quarter of 2022 was 5% lower than in the third quarter. Only Skagit County experienced higher asking prices. Clearly, sellers are starting to be more realistic about the shift in the market.
❱ Even though the region saw aggregate prices fall, prices rose in six counties year over year.
❱ Much will be said about the drop in prices, but I am not overly concerned. Like most of the country, the Western Washington market went through a period of artificially low borrowing costs, which caused home values to soar. But now prices are trending back to more normalized levels, which I believe is a good thing.
Mortgage Rates
Rates rose dramatically in 2022, but I believe that they have now peaked. Mortgage rates are primarily based on the prices and yields of bonds, and while bonds take cues from several places, they are always impacted by inflation and the economy at large. If inflation continues to fall, as I expect it will, rates will continue to drop.
My current forecast is that mortgage rates will trend lower as we move through the year. While this may be good news for home buyers, rates will still be higher than they have become accustomed to. Even as the cost of borrowing falls, home prices in expensive markets such as Western Washington will probably fall a bit more to compensate for rates that will likely hold above 6% until early summer.
Western Washington Days on Market
❱ It took an average of 41 days for homes to sell in the fourth quarter of 2022. This was 17 more days than in the same quarter of 2021, and 16 days more than in the third quarter of 2022.
❱ King County was again the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 31 days to find a buyer.
❱ All counties contained in this report saw the average time on market rise from the same period a year ago.
❱ Year over year, the greatest increase in market time was Snohomish County, where it took an average of 23 more days to find a buyer. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, San Juan County saw average market time rise the most (from 34 to 74 days).
Conclusions
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
The regional economy is still growing, but it is showing signs of slowing. Although this is not an immediate concern, if employees start to worry about job security, they may decide to wait before making the decision to buy or sell a home. As we move through the spring I believe the market will be fairly soft, but I would caution buyers who think conditions are completely shifting in their direction. Due to the large number of homeowners who have a mortgage at 3% or lower, I simply don’t believe the market will become oversupplied with inventory, which will keep home values from dropping too significantly.
Ultimately, however, the market will benefit buyers more than sellers, at least for the time being. As such, I have moved the needle as close to the balance line as we have seen in a very long time.
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
This article originally appeared on the Windermere blog January 26th, 2023. Written by: Matthew Gardner.
© Copyright 2023, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island.
Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023
This video shows Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
1. There Is No Housing Bubble
Mortgage rates rose steeply in 2022 which, when coupled with the massive run-up in home prices, has some suggesting that we are recreating the housing bubble of 2007. But that could not be further from the truth.
Over the past couple of years, home prices got ahead of themselves due to a perfect storm of massive pandemic-induced demand and historically low mortgage rates. While I expect year-over-year price declines in 2023, I don’t believe there will be a systemic drop in home values. Furthermore, as financing costs start to pull back in 2023, I expect that will allow prices to resume their long-term average pace of growth.
2. Mortgage Rates Will Drop
Mortgage rates started to skyrocket at the start of 2022 as the Federal Reserve announced their intent to address inflation. While the Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates, they can influence them, which we saw with the 30-year rate rising from 3.2% in early 2022 to over 7% by October.
Their efforts so far have yet to significantly reduce inflation, but they have increased the likelihood of a recession in 2023. Therefore, early in the year I expect the Fed to start pulling back from their aggressive policy stance, and this will allow rates to begin slowly stabilizing. Rates will remain above 6% until the fall of 2023 when they should dip into the high 5% range. While this is higher than we have become used to, it’s still more than 2% lower than the historic average.
3. Don’t Expect Inventory to Grow Significantly
Although inventory levels rose in 2022, they are still well below their long-term average. In 2023 I don’t expect a significant increase in the number of homes for sale, as many homeowners do not want to lose their low mortgage rate. In fact, I estimate that 25-30 million homeowners have mortgage rates around 3% or lower. Of course, homes will be listed for sale for the usual reasons of career changes, death, and divorce, but the 2023 market will not have the normal turnover in housing that we have seen in recent years.
4. No Buyer’s Market But a More Balanced One
With supply levels expected to remain well below normal, it’s unlikely that we will see a buyer’s market in 2023. A buyer’s market is usually defined as having more than six months of available inventory, and the last time we reached that level was in 2012 when we were recovering from the housing bubble. To get to six months of inventory, we would have to reach two million listings, which hasn’t happened since 2015. In addition, monthly sales would have to drop below 325,000, a number we haven’t seen in over a decade. While a buyer’s market in 2023 is unlikely, I do expect a return to a far more balanced one.
5. Sellers Will Have to Become More Realistic
We all know that home sellers have had the upper hand for several years, but those days are behind us. That said, while the market has slowed, there are still buyers out there. The difference now is that higher mortgage rates and lower affordability are limiting how much buyers can pay for a home. Because of this, I expect listing prices to pull back further in the coming year, which will make accurate pricing more important than ever when selling a home.
6. Workers Return to Work (Sort of)
The pandemic’s impact on where many people could work was profound, as it allowed buyers to look further away from their workplaces and into more affordable markets. Many businesses are still determining their long-term work-from-home policies, but in the coming year I expect there will be more clarity for workers. This could be the catalyst for those who have been waiting to buy until they know how often they’re expected to work at the office.
7. New Construction Activity Is Unlikely to Increase
Permits for new home construction are down by over 17% year over year, as are new home starts. I predict that builders will pull back further in 2023, with new starts coming in at a level we haven’t seen since before the pandemic.
Builders will start seeing some easing in the supply chain issues that hit them hard over the past two years, but development costs will still be high. Trying to balance homebuilding costs with what a consumer can pay (given higher mortgage rates) will likely lead builders to slow activity. This will actually support the resale market, as fewer new homes will increase the demand for existing homes.
8. Not All Markets Are Created Equal
Markets where home price growth rose the fastest in recent years are expected to experience a disproportionate swing to the downside. For example, markets in areas that had an influx of remote workers, who flocked to cheaper housing during the pandemic, will likely see prices fall by a greater percentage than other parts of the country. That said, even those markets will start to see prices stabilize by the end of 2023 and resume a more reasonable pace of price growth.
9. Affordability Will Continue to Be a Major Issue
In most markets, home prices will not increase in 2023, but any price drop will not be enough to make housing more affordable. And with mortgage rates remaining higher than they’ve been in over a decade, affordability will continue to be a problem in the coming year, which is a concerning outlook for first-time buyers.
Over the past two years, many renters have had aspirations of buying but the timing wasn’t quite right for them. With both prices and mortgage rates spiraling upward in 2022, it’s likely that many renters are now in a situation where the dream of homeownership has gone. That’s not to say they will never be able to buy a home, just that they may have to wait a lot longer than they had hoped.
10. Government Needs to Take Housing More Seriously
Over the past two years, the market has risen to such an extent that it has priced out millions of potential home buyers. With a wave of demand coming from Millennials and Gen Z, the pace of housing production must increase significantly, but many markets simply don’t have enough land to build on. This is why I expect more cities, counties, and states to start adjusting their land use policies to free up more land for housing.
But it’s not just land supply that can help. Elected officials can assist housing developers by utilizing Tax Increment Financing tools, whereby the government reimburses a private developer as incremental taxes are generated from housing development. There are many tools like this at the government’s disposal to help boost housing supply, and I sincerely hope that they start to take this critical issue more seriously.
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
This article originally appeared on the Windermere blog November 14th, 2022. Written by: Matthew Gardner.
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
2737 77th Ave SE, Mercer Island, WA 98040 | (206) 232-0446
mercerisland@windermere.com
© Copyright 2022, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island.
How to Avoid Overpaying for a Home in a Transitioning Market
Look Carefully at the Home Itself
Here are four home attributes beyond the number of bedrooms and baths that you should have your eye on…
Home (building) quality: Very well-built homes are a rare find and typically worth every penny of their price. Don’t confuse them with so-so homes that just measure up to the city inspector’s threshold. Lesser quality homes will cost you more in upkeep and replacement as systems and components wear out. If you purchase a lesser quality home for less, the differential might just cover the added maintenance expense. But, if you purchase a fair quality home at the going rate of higher quality homes, you might likely be overpaying.
Deferred maintenance: Different than home quality, deferred maintenance includes the to-do list of items that need to be done to maintain a home’s integrity. A home that has been well maintained over its life typically is a better investment than one that hasn’t. The true cost of deferred maintenance often adds up to more than the cost of the repairs themselves. Don’t forget to factor in the reduced life span of other components—like replacement of damaged wood beneath peeling paint or mold remediation in a damp basement caused by a clogged foundation drain.
Setting: The saying “location, location, location” didn’t get its fame from out of nowhere. A home with an ideal setting on its lot and in the neighborhood—away from busy roads and utility poles/boxes, with adequate privacy, good topography, best positioned to capture views if available, and not adjacent to undesirable elements (poorly maintained homes, water towers or other unsightly public structures, high traffic facilities, etc.) will have more value than a less-ideally sited home. When deciding what to pay for a property it is critical that you evaluate these aspects and any others relevant to a specific neighborhood to determine the +/- effect on value.
Floor plan: How a home lives—flow from room to room, size of rooms, open/closed-off spaces, and below ground vs. above ground living are every bit as important as the total home square footage. You can change a lot of things about a home, but it is very difficult to change a bad floor plan. When you are deciding how high to make that multiple offer bid, consider factoring in the added value or take-away of the floor plan.
Beyond the Four Walls
Interest Rates: In addition to being more selective about the home itself, it pays off to understand how interest rates impact your monthly housing cost. It’s a bigger deal than you might think. Every 1% increase in interest rate equates to roughly a 10% decrease in buying power. Said differently, a 10% drop in home sale price would be wiped out by a subtle 1% increase in mortgage interest rate. This means you can obtain a much more expensive home when rates are low, whereas higher rates get you less home—even though you still pay the same monthly payment.
If you have $5,000 a month to budget for a house payment (before taxes and insurance), you could purchase a $931,000 house at a 5% mortgage rate. If rates went up to 6%, the same monthly payment would only get you an $834,000 home. Your buying power diminishes considerably with each bump up in rates.
This second chart below shows how interest rates impact monthly payments. If you’re purchasing a $950,000 house at a 5% interest rate, you’ll be paying $596 less every month than if rates were 6%. That adds up quick…$7,152 in one year alone!
Job and Location Stability: Like nearly any investment vehicle, being able to buy and sell on your own time allows you take advantage of ideal market conditions or hold until a more favorable market returns. In an uncertain market, you should plan to be able to stay put for a minimum of 5-7 years if needed. If relocation or job loss is a distinct possibility, waiting to buy might avoid loss as a result of an untimely sale.
Homeownership Lifestyle: For many, homeownership represents a life accomplishment, independence, and financial security. For others, one more thing requiring maintenance and upkeep. Knowing where you stand (at this moment in time anyway) when it comes to evaluating the pros and cons of homeownership as a lifestyle choice is a better first step than an afterthought.
Final Thoughts
Want to know how you can best protect yourself in a changing real estate market? Reach out to us for help evaluating whether it would make financial sense to buy now or wait.
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
2737 77th Ave SE, Mercer Island, WA 98040 | (206) 232-0446
mercerisland@windermere.com
© Copyright 2022, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island.
